Saturday, 2 December 2023

Arsenal await Man City relegation verdict with triple benefit but face Mikel Arteta exit concern

Mikel Arteta and Arsenal could benefit three times over from potential Man City relegation verdict after latest predicted odds emerge

Arsenal await the verdict of Man City's investigation with the potential benefits from a relegation.

Arsenal fans have been in a state of unrest over Manchester City’s investigation into the alleged 115 rule breaches and the impact it could have on both them and their Premier League title rivals. After Everton received a points deduction, it suddenly brought more attention to the reality of the potential implications should the club be found guilty.

Man City reportedly face a trial in the autumn of next year with an outcome slated not to be known until potentially as late as 2025. We previously discussed how the sheer volume of alleged breaches would certainly entail a lengthy process.

However, Altindex.com’s latest odds on the outcome suggest that the likeliest outcome remains neither relegation nor points deduction as punishment. Points deductions and relegation odds are far less likely and from an Arsenal perspective it seems they should continue preparations with their current rivals remaining as such into the long term.

However, in a world in which the suggested 5/1 chance that relegation does indeed happen, there are of course benefits worth theorising on. The initial one is of course the most obvious and the fact with City out of the picture for at least a season the title becomes far more achievable.

I have maintained that if your expectation is that Arsenal should win the league whilst having Man City as your favourites for it this is a contradiction. However, with City out of the picture, that expectation suddenly becomes a far more realistic one.

If City were to go down, it would be interesting to then see who might leave the club. Would the champions be able to hold onto their top talent, would they stay for what you’d expect to be a single campaign in the second tier?

Could Arsenal look to take the opportunity of recruiting some of the young stars looking for a quick route back to the Premier League? It is difficult to know and with players under contract, it would make sense for the club to deny any exits.

However, in the market, Arsenal could benefit from beating City to any transfer targets they might have at the time, making them promises over both Premier League football and a consistent title challenge too. How Man City recover from a drop to the Championship is territory never considered before and so that could give the Gunners an edge.

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Lastly, Pep Guardiola’s contract expires in 2025 and with a potential relegation it would be difficult to see the Spaniard continuing. Outside of the player quality and major investment, the success of City is largely contributed to by Guardiola who elevated them beyond their long list of coaches that had stints prior to his appointment.

Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal taking on a City side looking for a new manager even with an immediate return to the Premier League would be interesting. I suppose the only worry comes in if City approach Arteta himself for the role.

We are approaching a touchstone moment in Premier League history. The hope is that Arsenal come out of it with maximum benefit to them in both the short and long term.

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